Thom Hogan on the missing Nikon D300s replacement:
“Will Nikon give us a D300s replacement? When would they give it to us? What will it be like? My predictions are yes, fall 2015, and not as good as what I just described.
Here’s another thing that comes into play: I don’t think that the remaining customers for DSLRs are entirely price sensitive. Sure, they are at the D3300/D5500 level, and Nikon needs to do more to make that work for them. But those DSLRs are likely to be eclipsed by mirrorless at some point, anyway. At the D7200 and up level, and especially at the pro body type we’re talking about with a D300s replacement, the customer is far less price sensitive than they are feature sensitive. If the options are (1) what I described above at US$2199 versus (2) the current 24mp sensor doing 10 fps in basically a D810 type body without the other things I described at US$1799, I’ll bet #1 would outsell #2.
We’re looking at a glass half full, half empty type of situation. Nikon would probably think they’ve been successful in filling half the glass (FX is doing okay, and they’re still selling DX DSLRs and making a profit). I’d say they’ve failed to fill more than half the glass (the pro gear right now is decidedly awkward, the DX DSLRs are arbitrarily defined and the channel is overstuffed with them, the Nikon 1 has been a random walk through design ideas with no one polishing anything, etc.).
A D300s replacement will tell us whether the glass will continue to be half full, or is still half empty ;~). But boy is it coming late to market. Really late. Harvard Business School Case Study late. ”